Wednesday, September 20, 2023
Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Saturday, September 9, 2023
Monday, August 28, 2023
Friday, August 25, 2023
Fwd: Since 2007
---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Larry
US Budget Deficits Are Exploding Like Never Before
Investors see a high-spending new normal keeping interest rates and inflation elevated.
American politicians are keener than ever to juice the economy with government cash, a shift that's already helping to drive up borrowing costs and looks likely to keep them high long after the inflation emergency is over.
The outlook for the federal budget right now is essentially unprecedented—crisis-size deficits as far as the eye can see, even though the economy appears to be in good health. That prospect is making investors uneasy, as demonstrated by yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries climbing above 4.3% this week, their highest levels since 2007. Other borrowing costs are rising in tandem:
Friday, July 28, 2023
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
Saturday, June 17, 2023
Friday, May 26, 2023
Sunday, April 16, 2023
Friday, February 17, 2023
Thursday, February 9, 2023
Sunday, January 29, 2023
Re: Crypto: The World’s Greatest Scam
When I posted this to Facebook, someone I know got into a real huff, saying that I don't understand how incredible the technology is. We went back and forth a bit, but today I wrote this:
There is something about this that I don't understand or my understanding is faulty. The blockchain is essentially a ledger entry stating that you own something distributed over a large number of computers. Instead of a few computers being involved, say at the stock exchange and your broker, a large number of computers have to hold this information, consuming power. You get buzzwords like decentralized, distributed, and public, but how is that better than a centralized ledger?
And since this is largely unregulated, you are dependent upon the goodwill of many actors. We have already seen multiple frauds related to cryptocurrency.
Here I am questioning the value of blockchain, and maybe it does have a value on a technical level that I don't understand, as opposed to before where I was questioning the value of the assets like Bitcoin which I think have no intrinsic value.
And since this is largely unregulated, you are dependent upon the goodwill of many actors. We have already seen multiple frauds related to cryptocurrency.
Here I am questioning the value of blockchain, and maybe it does have a value on a technical level that I don't understand, as opposed to before where I was questioning the value of the assets like Bitcoin which I think have no intrinsic value.
On Tue, Jan 24, 2023 at 9:42 PM John wrote:
I think that the title says it all.Forty years ago people thought that antiques were a profitable investment. It was driven by a high demand for antiques, so people started looking at antiques as an investment. This was based on the "bigger fool theory", which was that you would buy the item solely as an investment, possibly paying more than its intrinsic value, and you hoped that there was a bigger fool out there who would pay you more money for it. The problem is that somebody is left holding the bag when demand goes down. This is a characteristic of many financial bubbles, the first of which started with tulips. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_maniaThe problem with crypto-anything is that it doesn't have an intrinsic value and the value is only driven by hype. As long as the hype continues, you can make money. But crypto doesn't have a use case that justifies its existence. Instead of being a useful alternate currency, it has turned into a get-rich-quick scheme.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORdWE_ffirg
Tuesday, January 24, 2023
Crypto: The World’s Greatest Scam
I think that the title says it all.
Forty years ago people thought that antiques were a profitable investment. It was driven by a high demand for antiques, so people started looking at antiques as an investment. This was based on the "bigger fool theory", which was that you would buy the item solely as an investment, possibly paying more than its intrinsic value, and you hoped that there was a bigger fool out there who would pay you more money for it. The problem is that somebody is left holding the bag when demand goes down. This is a characteristic of many financial bubbles, the first of which started with tulips. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
The problem with crypto-anything is that it doesn't have an intrinsic value and the value is only driven by hype. As long as the hype continues, you can make money. But crypto doesn't have a use case that justifies its existence. Instead of being a useful alternate currency, it has turned into a get-rich-quick scheme.
Friday, January 20, 2023
Our Offer to Steven Crowder
This is an interesting soap opera between The Daily Wire and Stephen Crowder, both of which are prominent conservative streamers. Although reportedly they were on friendly terms, Stephen Crowder took offense to an offer made by The Daily Wire to join their company and publicized their presumably confidential negotiations in an attack video.
I don't see how The Daily Wire is at fault here. If Crowder didn't like their offer then that should have been the end of it, or he could have tried to negotiate a better deal.
I think that even highly successful people let emotion cloud their reason, if not more so because they are highly successful. Ego gets in the way.
A few years ago, Youtube streamers were on the fringe of media. Now they are endorsing products in national ad campaigns. I watch more Youtube than any other media or streaming service.
Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Sunday, December 11, 2022
Saturday, December 10, 2022
Tuesday, December 6, 2022
Sunday, December 4, 2022
Is Tik Tok addictive?
Is Tik Tok addictive?
In the first part of the video, he claims that Baby Boomers have been stealing money from the younger generation.
So I wrote this:
Friday, December 2, 2022
Leverage Buyouts from Private Equity Firms
I don't have an opinion on this. Why should it be illegal to buy companies? Should it be illegal to take loans to buy companies? Should it be illegal to serve on the board of directors of a company that you bought?
Friday, November 4, 2022
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
No, the U.S. isn’t going to run out of diesel fuel in 25 days
Tucker Carlson: The US is about to run out of diesel fuel
This mean that truckers and trains cannot transport food and other commodities. The economy could collapse.
Mansfield warned that at the U.S. economy level, consumers may feel pain at the pump, but for businesses that rely on diesel for operations, supply will still be available.
"That is not to say there will not occasionally be situations where there is a true physical lack of products," the company said. "Some cities might run dry on diesel for a few days, at least at the terminal level. But the fuel supply chain is dynamic, and suppliers will rally to fill in any gaps in supply."
"That is not to say there will not occasionally be situations where there is a true physical lack of products," the company said. "Some cities might run dry on diesel for a few days, at least at the terminal level. But the fuel supply chain is dynamic, and suppliers will rally to fill in any gaps in supply."
This is also the time of year that refineries are doing maintenance. They tend to do that in the spring and fall, which is when demand is lower and the weather is decent. So, refinery capacity drops at this time of year.
Third, U.S. refinery capacity has fallen in the past few years as several unprofitable refineries were closed. So, that's a new factor that has appeared in the past couple of years.
But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S.
The loss of those Russian imports has caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates. Refineries do have a small amount of flexibility in shifting gasoline production to diesel production. But it's a relatively small amount (e.g., ~5% in a refinery I once worked in). That also means that if refiners do shift production, it also potentially creates shortages in the gasoline market.
Some relief is on the way, as some diesel imports are on the way from Europe to the East Coast. But, the distillate market won't likely return to normal before next summer at the earliest.
Third, U.S. refinery capacity has fallen in the past few years as several unprofitable refineries were closed. So, that's a new factor that has appeared in the past couple of years.
But the primary reason is the cutoff of Russian imports. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. was importing nearly 700,000 barrels per day (BPD) of petroleum and petroleum products. Most of those imports were finished products and refinery inputs that boosted distillate supplies in the U.S.
The loss of those Russian imports has caused problems for refineries as they struggle to fill holes in their product slates. Refineries do have a small amount of flexibility in shifting gasoline production to diesel production. But it's a relatively small amount (e.g., ~5% in a refinery I once worked in). That also means that if refiners do shift production, it also potentially creates shortages in the gasoline market.
Some relief is on the way, as some diesel imports are on the way from Europe to the East Coast. But, the distillate market won't likely return to normal before next summer at the earliest.
Saturday, October 1, 2022
The WORST Housing Crash In 40 Years JUST BEGAN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkIhqBHgEDQ
I have always been very skeptical of gloom and doom predictions. Nobody can predict the future with any accuracy. However, a housing bust would not surprise me.
Friday, September 16, 2022
Monday, August 29, 2022
Thursday, August 18, 2022
What is modern monetary theory? | John Hancock Investment Mgt
https://www.jhinvestments.com/viewpoints/investing-basics/what-is-modern-monetary-theory
Money is not wealth. It is a placeholder for wealth. If you create more of it, then by definition each unit of money is worth less, unless somehow you created an equivalent amount of wealth.
I am a bit worried about the 40% increase in the money supply that happened over the last two calendar years and what this means for my retirement.
So increasing the money supply can be a form of theft. It is transferring value to those people who receive the new currency at the expense of the people holding the existing currency.
If we count precious metals as a form of wealth, then having a backed currency would make money a form of wealth.
Money is not wealth. It is a placeholder for wealth. If you create more of it, then by definition each unit of money is worth less, unless somehow you created an equivalent amount of wealth.
I am a bit worried about the 40% increase in the money supply that happened over the last two calendar years and what this means for my retirement.
So increasing the money supply can be a form of theft. It is transferring value to those people who receive the new currency at the expense of the people holding the existing currency.
If we count precious metals as a form of wealth, then having a backed currency would make money a form of wealth.
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