Friday, June 25, 2021

Housing prices

Although the Zillow estimate on housing value might not be perfect, it is a pretty good judge of which way the market is going.
The housing prices in Salt Lake City have gone through the roof. The house that I paid $130,000 back in 1999 is now estimated to be worth $647,000. I sold it for a fraction of that.
Indiana is not as bad, but it seems recently that prices have taken off. The home I purchased less than 3 years ago is up by 25% from what I paid. My previous home in New Whiteland that I paid $120,000 for six years ago is now estimated to be worth $220,000.
The key point is that I could not afford to move if I wanted to. I would have to sell my home first or make my next purchase contingent on selling my home first.


Tuesday, May 25, 2021

CRYPTO CRASH. I'M DONE (as a millionaire)

The first seven minutes give a pretty good reason why as to why cryptocurrency might be a bad idea.  The rest is just technical analysis.

Bitcoin has no value other than the willingness of other people to buy it or accept it as payment.  This is called the "bigger fool" theory, where you hope that there is a bigger fool than you out there.

I could have bought bitcoin at $5, $50, and $5,000.  I could have made a fortune.   During an inflationary period, some assets will increase in value.  Someday Bitcoin could be worth a million dollars.  However, the moment that people decide that they don't want it, it could lose all its value.  Likewise, the government could regulate it out of existence.

Thursday, March 4, 2021

Monday, January 25, 2021

Why mainstream media's slander of wall street bets pisses me off regarding GME.

This is interesting.

I think that Gamestop will eventually go out of business.  There is a very strong trend toward buying or renting videogames off of the internet.  Retail sales of games can't last more than a couple of years.   Video is headed in the same direction.

Games were distributed on media because that was the only practical way to transfer large data.  Storage of the data was also an issue if you had a bunch of games.  These are no longer limitations.

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Housing prices in Utah

It is amazing how much houses are selling for in Utah. Not just new or nearly new houses. Some older houses that I had looked at and rejected are selling for $250K to $300K. My old three-bedroom house built in 1939, the same year The Wizard of Oz came out, which I paid $120K for, is now estimated at $476K. I didn't even like this house. It was too old and had too many problems.

I would not be able to afford to move back to Utah.


Friday, August 16, 2019

New Asian flu?

From: utahtrout 

However, it may be a sign of a much more troubling problem. China has some issues eerily similar to what other Asian countries had just prior to the 1997 Asian financial crisis. That event two decades ago has been analyzed in great detail. It was triggered by a debt default of two companies: Somprasong Land (a major Thai property developer) and Finance One (one of Thailand's largest finance companies). Currency traders began to short the Thai currency, and eventually it broke its peg to the U.S. dollar, resulting in a 40% collapse in value. This steep drop made paying back dollar-denominated loans impossible. Currency weakness spread to South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. All their currencies declined dramatically --between 34% and 83% against the dollar. Equity markets around the world, including the U.S., experienced significant declines

While the trigger was a debt default as financial conditions shifted, the underlying factors had long been in place – these were export-driven economies that had close government co-operation with preferred manufacturers, subsidies, favorable financial deals, massive debt-financed growth and a currency pegged to the U.S dollar. Sound familiar?

Saturday, July 7, 2018

Re: Book - "he Ponzi Factor" by Tan Liu

On Sat, Jul 7, 2018 at 3:01 AM, KEVIN KEYES wrote:

  My brother lent me a hard copy of the book "the Ponzi Factor" by Tan Liu that states the stock market is a Ponzi Scheme, the data in this book is compelling and disturbing.  It is a quick read, interested in your view point.


I made this argument before without firmly believing in it.  

My rationale is that when a company issues stock, people give them money, and the company gives them pieces of paper representing ownership in the company.  The paper itself has no inherent value, it is only what the paper represents that has value.  Companies that issue dividends have some inherent value, but not all companies issue dividends.  Unlike the first publicly traded stock, the Dutch East India Company, you can't sell that stock back to the company for money.  Eventually the Dutch East India Company discontinued this practice, and you could only get value out of the stock by selling it to other people, just like today's stock market.  So like buying and selling antiques, the value of your holding depends upon somebody else's willingness to buy it.  In the antique business they call this "the bigger fool theory."

Of course, money only has value based on people's willingness to exchange goods for it, so the value of any financial holding is dependent upon other people.

What is the ultimate fate of the stock you own?  The Dutch East India Company went out of business 198 years after they first issued stock.  Apple is doing really right now, but what are the chances that they will continue to do well in perpetuity?   Eventually corruption or mismanagement will cause the company to go into decline.  (I think that this could already be happening.)  At some point it will either go out of business, or be bought out by somebody else.  For example, in the early 1980's Atari was at the top of their game, but after the video game crash of 1983 they nearly went out of business, and what little is left of the company has several times been bought and sold by other companies.

​So it seems to me that the value of our stock is temporary ​and depends upon a number of factors including the economy doing well.  I think that everybody hopes to sell their individual stocks before the inevitable decline.  However, the stock market as a whole has been a proven winner, and there is safety in diversification.


Thursday, August 31, 2017

What Colleges and Graduate Schools Don't Want You to Know

I have heard that 40% of college graduates have to take a job that does not require a degree.  It means that we are educating more people than the market needs.