Axios

Zoom in: The risk in this particular moment is that Fed independence is under pressure while the full potential impact of tariffs has not been felt yet, which could leave monetary policy "really behind the curve," Natalucci says.

• The U.S. is "thriving because it's an open economy. It's a rules-based economy," he adds. If the rules are rewritten, it could be a catalyst for investors to continue moving away from dollar-denominated assets.

Yes, but: Not only is the U.S. not an emerging market, but American leadership still has the kind of credibility that emerging markets leaders often lack, Hsu notes.

• Trump has "a lot of willing believers," including market participants who felt economic data gathering needed reforms to make it more accurate.

What we're watching: "The market will price (any) policy mistake," Natalucci says. For now the bond market has been relatively stable since April.

• But if the Fed were to cut rates amid hot inflation, bond investors could react negatively, pushing up yields and making debt more expensive.
• That could put pressure on the administration, which has already proven that it reacts when the bond market panics.

The White House responded to an Axios request for comment on these parallels via email.

• "There is no virtue in defending a broken status quo and upholding elite-approved America Last policies that have eroded our industrial base and decimated American communities," White House spokesman Kush Desai writes, pointing to efforts to lower inflation and strike trade deals.
• "Ivory tower analyses that are completely disconnected from day-to-day reality for working class Americans aren't going to change these facts."